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Fri May 27, 2011 3:44 am
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fingerbun
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Joined: 21 Dec 2007
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Location: Sydney

Post subject: SET, RETURN… MATCH Reply with quote

Just a quick guide for some players, this may give some perspective on the return of some sets, when and when not to buy them. This guide is really for the two player format.

For this guide I have figured the total cost to buy a set by the below formula. Keep in mind this is only a rough measurement. Each player and situation will vary. The formula is an average and takes in to account the -20% discount.

Set = (cost price + 60% x 2) x 2

For example, lets look at the orange set.

Orange set = (100 + 60 x 2) x 2
= 640
So, to purchase all 3 orange squares will approximately cost $640 in total. Now, lets look at the upgrade cost. To upgrade orange it will cost you $300 per upgrade and $1500 to fully upgrade. Since you can sell your upgrades for 50% of their cost, the total upgrade amount equals $750.

The total cost to buy the orange set and upgrade is $750 + $640 = $1390
Considering your opponent loses $100 and you gain $100, you are really making $200 every time your opponent hits your orange square.

1390/200 = 6.95 (lets round up). Your opponent will need to land your orange set 7 times before the set is returning a profit.

Now I have always believed you will land a set one in every 3.5 passes, without jail and go-to bonus it would be 4(Some people disagree but I have recorded this over a few games) So your opponent will need to circle the board 25 times before you are returning a profit. I will put this in point form for every set:

Orange Set + Upgrade - (Sale of Upgrade) = 1390
7 lands before set is profitable
Opponent will approximately need 25 passes to land 7 times

Brown Set + Upgrade - (Sale of Upgrade) = 2280
8.7 (9)lands before set is profitable
Opponent will approximately need 30 passes to land 8.7 times

Light Blue Set + Upgrade - (Sale Of Upgrade) = 3560
8.9 (9)lands before set is Profitable
Opponent will approximately need 31.1 passes to land 8.9 times

Dark Blue Set + Upgrade - (sale of Upgrade) = 4310
8.6 (9)lands before set is profitable
Opponent will approximately need 30.17 passes to land 8.6 times

Red Set + Upgrade - (Sale of Upgrade) = 5090
8.5 (9)lands before set is profitable
Opponent will approximately need 29.7 passes to land 8.5 times

Purple Set + Upgrade - (Sale of Upgrade) = 6620
9.5 (10) lands before set is profitable
Opponent will approximately need 33 passes to land 9.5 times

Green Set + Upgrade - (sale of upgrade) = 5980
5.98 (6) lands before set is profitable
Opponent will approximately need 21 passes to land 5.98 times

From this you can see that all of the sets pay themselves back in a similar time frame. Except for green, they are the bomb!
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Mon Jun 06, 2011 4:16 pm
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trace567
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Good post finger, although I personally can't work by figures like that. I just use the method of counteracting the other player (that is when I'm awake enough to bother Smile )

So I basically just make a mental like for like, or better than tally up so I try and have the edge against them.
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Tue Jun 07, 2011 2:21 am
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fingerbun
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Joined: 21 Dec 2007
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Location: Sydney

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Yes Trace, I do basically the same thing. If my opponent looks like they want to buy brown, I will go for light blue etc. But sometimes you cant hit your set until very late; it is then determining what the set is worth at that point in the game.

I would prefer to make my opponent lose 1200 on bidding on the last square then me making a net profit of 800 or so.
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Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:51 pm
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Beretta
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Joined: 28 Jan 2009
Posts: 111
Location: Calgary, Alberta

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out of curiosity could you do a rough calculation on 3 p and 5 p i know its probably work intensive but i am curious to see it. And the 2p sched is awesome great job. also i didn't see anything in there to account for the purchases of white and black sets?
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Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:52 pm
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fingerbun
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Joined: 21 Dec 2007
Posts: 769
Location: Sydney

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If you own all 4 extractors you need around 28-30 hits in total by you or your opponent. 4 utilities you need around 15 hits from your opponent.

3 Extractors is around the same. 26-28 hits.
3 Utilities is around 14 hits.

Your other request is very hard to calculate and to be honest, I wouldnt now where to start.. Sorry bra.
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Tue Jun 14, 2011 8:31 am
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Beretta
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Location: Calgary, Alberta

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tyvm for that and np on the other stuff
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Thu Jun 23, 2011 12:20 am
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theunknownamus
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Great chart finger. By this advice, it looks like going for pink is going against the odds. Unless people happen to land on it a lot, it appears to be a risky set for 2p. But besides that, all I have to do now is use this and calculate the auction cost with a purchase. Very Happy
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Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:23 pm
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fingerbun
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Joined: 21 Dec 2007
Posts: 769
Location: Sydney

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Level 5 upgrade for purple probably is not the best example. Also, you could probably get the purple set for less then the formula indicates. It was the one set which didnt really meet realism when using the fingerbang formula.

Purple= (800 + 60% x2) x2
= 5120 (probably could buy at 4400)

Upgraded purple level 4= 6320
= 9.2 hits

Upgraded purple level 4 @ 4400= 8.2 hits

Upgraded purple level 3= 6020
= 9.7 hits

Upgraded purple level 3 @ 4400= 8.5 hits.
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Wed Jun 29, 2011 12:13 am
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theunknownamus
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Ah, nice clarification.
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