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Thu Mar 26, 2009 6:41 pm
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Magflag12
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Post subject: 2. My take on trading as a concept in gm theory. Reply with quote

Trading is, in my opinion, the most important variable of determining an end winner in a 4/5p. In 2p, the most crucial element is most likely to be how much you should spend on a property, so it boils down to who makes the most mistakes and mistakes are not able to be taken back, only made up for by luck or other good decisions. In 4/5p mistakes are in the high of the beholder the whole time because of the trading element alone. Replacing mistakes are easy, and so too are making up for them with luck or other good decisions. However, it takes a skill to know how to use trading to maximum advantage.

I would like to point out a contemporary player that seems to be doing well in 4/5p. He has, allegedly won (as in 1st place) 10/12 matches, where the other ones he likely got 3rd or 2nd. That takes skill, and it is not in the skill that 2p requires, it is in the skill of trading.

First lets determine why trading is important. It is important because it is the only means of changing your mind in a multiplayer game, changing the game from current direction, and eliminating some of the luck factor of simply landing on peices to win. Without trading we'd be playing a luck game in 4/5p, seeing who can land on peices the fastest and bid them the best price.

That was easy. now lets determine what 'good' trading implies. Of course a good trade will always increase your chance of getting a better position with in the game, but there is another element that needs to be looked at. Which leads me to the two factors in good trading (not good trades)... 1. How to set up a trade to benefit yourself without leaving no incentive for the other player to accept. 2. How to set up the ability to make such trades.

Now, generally, the 1st of those two are what are thought of when determining good trading strategy. But the second one is more important, because without it the first one is not possible.

Lets look at a quick example...

You have 0 cash, 3 greens, 2 reds, and 1 white and the start is at +50. Time is of essence here, so how do you increase your position? Its obvious, you trade. The reason that you have such a great chance of winning or doing great is because of the fact that 1. you have substantial peices that are valuable, and 2. you have people who also want an increased chance of winning or doing great. So, you could trade the 2 reds for 1800 which completes a guy's set for red, and leaves him with 200 in cash and 800 in credit (because he also owns all 4 blacks). Now, why would you give someone a set for a price that you probably payed twice that to get green and whats more you payed a close amount to even GET the 2 reds? Its all game situation. As defined by my latter take.

The 1800 allows for 3 immediate upgrades in which give you chance for income. You then could sell the white, and possibly get 700-1000 for it alone. That is yet another uggrade, and then with a couple of hits or a bonus or two you are fully upgraded and stand to win or get dad gum close.

If you had not the reds or whites would you have much opportunity? Sure, you could trade your greens, but would you be able to land a deal that allows you opportunity to go from last to first? or even from last to second? Not likely, in all reality, because no one is likely to make such a trade.

So, the importance of setting up the opportunity for trade is the most important part of the game. Here is a way to determine how to do it keeping in mind game situations:

Throughout the game you should consider these variables: Player's likelihood of trading (read first post), what people need to gain ground in the game, how much people are paying for peices, when people are going to be willing to trade with you, and many more. You will see that from the start of the game you will have to be a record keeper of all accounts and be very observatory of behaviours and transactions alike. If you don't believe the importance of paying close attention to detail, play a 5p game where you are constantly in a different window or looking else where when game play goes on and you only look when its your turn or when you hear auctioning going back and forth and your only checking to see if its something you might need. You will find it hard to get people to trade with you because you did not keep in mind their motives behind the actions because you did not see the actions or notice them as significant. You will likely get 3rd place or worse as well. Try it and tell me if you get first please and tell me if you get 1st because of trading. I will applaude your rare occassion.

Lets look at different types of people in regards to trading based off strategy.

Straight-goers will trade, but not if their primary motive is not met first or at least still meatable after the trade. Trading with them will be hard because they will not want to do anything that will hurt them from getting what they are after. That is why they rarely trade.

Play-by-ears. They are usually the most likely to trade, and they will of course only accept trades that give themselves a chance at getting 1st or at least a position better than they feel they are in currently. If they are reluctant to trade it is based off logic, either they do not feel it will benefit them enough, or they feel that it will benefit you too much.

Big Fish in a Small Pond: This is not a particular strategy with in a game, but sometimes (rarely) a player whom has a lot of points will join a game with players who are significantly lower than him. It could be because he feels he is more experienced then them and can win easily, or it was accidental that he got in the game. Nonetheless he will do anything he can to get first. He will offer trades that seem ridiculous (and are) and then negogiate by going up slightly as time progresses on the fairness until someone accepts. He is unlikely to trade with people that he has blocked if that trade includes someone getting a set and still being able to upgrade it. Him getting 2nd place will be either completely unrewarding to him pointwise or it will hurt him point wise so he refuses to accept a chance of getting anything but 1st.

Small Fish in a Big Pond: Occasionally some small points will get in a game with some big points. When this happens it is likely he will maintain a strategy that gurantees he will not get last. Getting 4th in a 5p would gain him points so he just works on guranteeing 4th at least and then going from there. A small fish in a big pond is the most likely to try the risk of auctioning a needed property late in the game in hopes of him killing himself. Its risky, but works nonetheless. They have the advantage of not having to worry about a huge risk of loss, given that getting 5th is not that common in the grand scheme of things.

Strategic Placers: These people buy things with a purpose and try to do so from the start of the game. Its hard to do, but what they essentially do is buy a peice that serves a specific purpose rather than a means of gaining some advantage. The advantage of this is that they can (if done right) organize the places of people in terms of position. Ultimately their goal would be to put theirselves in a specific position such as 3rd, so that people do not begin to work against him, and then eventually trade or work his way to first by luck, trade, or lands.

Anti-strategy players: These players are not so common, but do show up. They play sort of like a play by ear in terms of buys and trades, but they work against a particular person or strategy to prevent it from working. Ultimately if there was a 5p they would want to figure out all 4 player's strategies and then work against them each until he is in a position for first. Hard to do, but it works if done right and the problem is that they can cause a last place for you when you may have been looking pretty good.

Winning Givers: People who do this usually only become these people after someone has gained substantial advantage in a game. They will do anything to help the winner, and help themselves a little in return so that the other players lose. Most common example is when players start selling off sets they cant upgrade for little cash at a time during a major recession. They will essentially work with the notion that the winners want a surer victory and a quicker victory.

Quick Buyers: These people want to obtain non-substantial properties quick because they know they can get them cheap and upgrade them so they start gaining profit by the time they actually need it. Works a lot in 5p, but fails when they only get a foot on 1 or 2 (brown/orange) and while the upgrade orange someone else gets brown and all other monopolies are taken by someone. Trading wise they will happily trade assuming they can get something tradable at a convenient time, and they will often trade their cheap monopolies once they start gaining profit off of it.

Last Opportunity Buyers: They will auction off many properties and give on most of them. Once most players have started getting reasonable chances of getting monopolies they will go for left overs. People who buy whites often go with this strategy because as the game winds down in terms of income at start they still collect a lot of cash. They will go for whatever is left, and if they need to they will do a bit of cash trading for property.

There are other types of players, but they fall in the category of the above. Some of the above are overlapping but essentially represent a different notion trading-wise. You must connect trades with motive of the player. If you have a straight goer on your hands you need to consider moving on to other players because wasting time and effort on trading with him may be futile.

After you start to realize certain people strategies/behavioural patterns you can start setting up opportunities to trade. For example, if you know you have a straight goer and a small fish in a big pond at the same time, you can start setting up things such as split monopolies/moneymakers (blacks/whites) between the two, and you will essentially hurt both of them in terms of their strategy, so they will be willing to trade to get out of their situation. The straight goer will take cash for some of his unwanted property, and the small fish will give cash for property. In this case, it would usually be best to buy the property first, so you can appear to be low on cash, but then sell the properties for cash and gain chance of getting the set with enough cash to upgrade. That is one example of something you can pull off.

Keep in mind that setting up stuff like that is hard and does not always work out. So, try to make sure that setting up something does not hurt you so bad if it does not work out. Do not get into situations that leave you optionless, because then players are unlikely to give you a decent deal. Most importantly, never forget that you cannot only rely on one set up, attempt several set ups and try to think ahead. Mix and match other strategies above and think about what you could do to set yourself up for a potential trade. Remember that part of trading is auctioning and bidding, as it is essentially setting up trading.

As for learning how to setup a good trade. It takes learning and comes from common sense and time spent playing 4/5p. Once you get it down you also find it easy to set things up.

I hope that is helpful, and if anyone has anything to add please feel free.
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If you're in a war, instead of throwing a hand grenade at the enemy, throw one of those small pumpkins. Maybe it'll make everyone think how stupid war is, and while they are thinking, you can throw a real grenade at them.
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Thu Mar 26, 2009 10:10 pm
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MrCrabbs
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Magflag, you promised your other posts would be shorter than number 1.
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Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:12 pm
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MrCrabbs
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Just for the record though, my winning streak was 15 games out of 17 and 2 second places, according to my count.

That winning streak is now over, alas!
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Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:18 pm
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MrCrabbs
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Post subject: Re: 2. My take on trading as a concept in gm theory. Reply with quote

See below.

Last edited by MrCrabbs on Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Sat Mar 28, 2009 5:25 pm
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MrCrabbs
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Post subject: Re: 2. My take on trading as a concept in gm theory. Reply with quote

Magflag12 wrote:
Big Fish in a Small Pond: This is not a particular strategy with in a game, but sometimes (rarely) a player whom has a lot of points will join a game with players who are significantly lower than him. It could be because he feels he is more experienced then them and can win easily, or it was accidental that he got in the game. Nonetheless he will do anything he can to get first. He will offer trades that seem ridiculous (and are) and then negogiate by going up slightly as time progresses on the fairness until someone accepts. He is unlikely to trade with people that he has blocked if that trade includes someone getting a set and still being able to upgrade it. Him getting 2nd place will be either completely unrewarding to him pointwise or it will hurt him point wise so he refuses to accept a chance of getting anything but 1st.


I have played some games that meet this description in my winning streak. However, I do not play as you characterise here. It is not that on any one trade I will always insist on getting the better of it (that would be silly having so much to lose). Rather, I always offer trades that offer the other player a good chance to increase his or her position, and mine. By making many such trades, I accrue many benefits, whereas other players tend only to accrue a one-off benefit, when they trade with me. Accruing these benefits, and blocking those who threaten, while still trading with them if the terms are mutually favourable, is the ket to victory in multiplayer.

I lost a 4p game recently where I was in 3rd and a player I traded with was in 4th. I offered that player a trade that would have given her a good chance of 3rd or 2nd, and me of 2nd or 1st, but she refused. My mistake was to deviate from the golden rule, of not giving such a player a good chance of getting ahead of you but only others. I offered her a trade that entailed a big gamble for me, because she was being very stubborn - a better strategy in this case would have been to remind the other player that by not trading they are sealing their place in last, and making them accept a fair trade.
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Sun Mar 29, 2009 7:08 am
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CYN
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Post subject: SMILES Reply with quote

GEE i wonder who she was???
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ITS ALL GOOD
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Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:35 pm
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MrCrabbs
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Do you know her CYN? Terribly stubborn trader Razz
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